Bitcoin Analysts Are Competing for Highest Price Forecast
It seems like everyone is coming up with a bitcoin price forecast these days, with some of the biggest banks jumping into the action, while speculators to long-time investors are also making their bets, according to Bloomberg.
The consensus is that the biggest cryptocurrency will face some resistance around $4,500 to $4,800 and correct, to then continue rallying. How high? Pantera Capital Management’s Paul Veradittakit, Tom Lee at Fundstrat Global Advisors and John Spallanzani at GFI Group see it going to $6,000 by year-end, while Ronnie Moas at Standpoint Research says it will keep rising to $7,500 in 2018.
Bitcoin has been on a tear this year, more than tripling in value as it crossed the $4,000 mark and touched a record $4,477 last week. It’s since retreated about 7 percent from the high as investors took profit and assessed whether the rally had gone too far. Growing adoption and institutional investor interest, agreement on a mechanism to speed up transactions and regulatory steps that will help the asset broaden its reach are some of the reasons that explain the gains.
Veradittakit said bitcoin will hover around current levels and rally further once the underlying technology is upgraded in November, when the block size in the bitcoin blockchain is set to double to two megabytes, increasing transaction speed. He’s also encouraged by reports from the local exchanges Pantera invests in that cross-border transactions are increasing.
But the road ahead might get rocky. Goldman Sachs technical analyst Sheba Jafari wrote in a note to clients Aug. 13 that bitcoin could erase around 40 percent of its value after reaching $4,827. On a separate note, Goldman Sachs analysts said the space is getting big enough at over $100 billion in market capitalization that it warrants watching.
Spallanzani, chief macro strategist at GFI Group, also predicts a sizeable fall to as low as $3,000 unless it manages to break the $4,500 level it tested last week. But then it should rebound and climb to as high as $10,000 in 2018, he said. Amid the frenzy, some analysts have steered clear of making price predictions, while still dipping their toes in bitcoin waters.
More longer term, bitcoin will climb to $25,000 by 2022, Fundstrat’s Lee said, as recent regulatory approval for options trading and settlement implies a “significant rise in institutional holdings” of bitcoin, while he estimates user accounts are likely to rise 50 percent and usage per account to climb 30 percent. Moas of Standpoint Research said in an Aug. 14 report that bitcoin could rise to $50,000 by 2027 as he expects cryptocurrency users will grow to as high as 100 million users from 10 million today in the next couple of years.