PC Market Returns to Growth in 1Q24

Global PC shipments grew around 3% YoY in 1Q24 after eight consecutive quarters of declines due to demand slowdown and inventory correction, according to Counterpoint Research. The shipment growth came on a relatively low base in 1Q23. The coming quarters of 2024 will see sequential shipment growth, resulting in 3% YoY growth for the full year, largely driven by AI PC momentum, shipment recovery across different sectors, and a fresh replacement cycle.

Lenovo’s PC shipments were up 8% in 1Q24 off an easy comparison from last year. The brand managed to reclaim its 24% share in the market, compared to 23% a year before. HP and Dell, with market shares of 21% and 16% respectively, remained flattish, waiting for North America to drive shipment growth in the coming quarters. Apple’s shipment performance was also resilient, with the 2% growth mainly supported by M3 base models.

Counterpoint Research sees 2024 as the first chapter of the AI PC (including desktops and laptops), as 45% of the new laptops shipped during the year will be AI-capable. Commenting on generative AI laptops, Senior Analyst William Li said, “We believe the shipment and deployment of generative AI laptops will accelerate in 2025-2026, along with emerging generative AI functions and use cases, supported by chip vendors’ new processor platforms.”

Against the backdrop of normalizing inventory levels and the end of the replacement cycle following skyrocketing demand in both enterprise and consumer segments amid the COVID-19 pandemic, Counterpoint Research believes that AI laptops could act as a catalyst in driving the overall PC shipment recovery in 2024. Manufacturers will start promoting AI PCs as their main products in the second half of 2024 as semiconductor companies prepare to launch SoCs featuring higher TOPS.