PCD Market Expected to Decline at a 2% CAGR through 2021

PCD Market Expected to Decline at a 2% CAGR through 2021
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According to the latest forecast from IDC, global shipments of personal computing devices (PCDs), composed of traditional PCs (desktop, notebooks and workstations) and tablets (slate, detachable), are expected to decline 2.7% year over year in 2017.

While this is a slower contraction compared to the previous year, IDC forecasts the shipments to decline further (4% year over year) in 2018. Looking toward the end of the five-year forecast, volumes are expected to continue declining from 423.3 million in 2017 to 393.9 million in 2021. This represents a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -2.0%.

When breaking down the PCD market, traditional PC shipments are expected to drop from 260.2 million units in 2016 to 248.1 million in 2021 units, resulting in a five-year CAGR of -0.9%. However, when detachable tablets are added in, the five-year CAGR improves to +0.3%. Out of the five major product categories in the PCD market, desktops and slates will continue to decline over the duration of the forecast, while detachable tablets, workstations, and notebook PCs will show signs of volume improvement.

Although the 0.3% CAGR is positive news, examining the market along geographic lines shows the PCD market will continue to face challenges in growing both volume as well as margins. With over 69% of shipments in emerging markets going toward traditional notebooks and slate tablets in 2021, price points remain very sensitive in countries once pegged as ripe for growth. Conversely, while convertibles and ultraslim notebooks have found increased favor in developed markets, China will be the only developing market among the top 10 markets for these devices in 2021.

Personal Computing Device Forecast, 2016-2021 (shipments in millions)

Product Category

2016 Shipments

2016 Share

2021 Shipments

2021 Share

2016-2021 CAGR

Desktop + DT & Datacenter Workstation

103.4

23.8%

87.0

22.1%

-3.4%

Notebook + Mobile Workstation

156.8

36.0%

161.1

40.9%

0.6%

Detachable Tablet

21.5

4.9%

37.1

9.4%

11.6%

Slate Tablet

153.4

35.3%

108.7

27.6%

-6.7%

Grand Total

435.1

100.0%

393.9

100.0%

-2.0%













Traditional PC

260.2

59.8%

248.1

63.0%

-0.9%

Traditional PC + Detachable

281.6

64.7%

285.2

72.4%

0.3%

Total Tablet (Slate + Detachable)

174.9

40.2%

145.8

37.0%

-3.6%