The EU Consumer Climate Remains Friendly

The positive mood among European consumers has also continued into the second quarter of 2017. After the nine-year peak at the beginning of the year, the consumer climate has remained at a high level for the EU 28 and closed at 19.1 points at the end of June. Overall, the results of the GfK consumer climate study are again quite mixed for Europe in the second quarter of 2017.

There were again major differences in terms of the three indicators, economic and income expectation, as well as propensity to buy. While Germany and France recorded highs here, the consumer mood cooled down a bit in some Eastern European countries like Poland and the Czech Republic.

"One of the striking results in the second quarter was the ‘Macron Effect’ in France, which had a noticeably positive effect on the mood of the French. The British consumers were evidently watching the Brexit talks with skepticism, which was reflected in weakness of the indicators. This quarter’s winners included Spain and Portugal, where consumers were again in a more confident mood owing to the recovering economy," said GfK consumer expert Rolf Bürkl

Economic expectation among German consumers rose to its highest level in three years in the second quarter of this year. The indicator reached 41.3 points at the end of June. The last time a higher value was measured, was 45.9 points in July 2014. Despite of all of the risks, such as possible trade restrictions implemented by the U.S. government or the initial Brexit negotiations, optimism about the economy remains unaffected in Germany.

The clear electoral victory for Emmanuel Macron has buoyed expectation in France: the indicator rose to 49.1 points in June, its highest level since the start of the survey in 1986. Compared with its level one year ago, it has risen by 48.6 points, and compared with the end of the first quarter of 2017 this means growth of 37.9 points. The French apparently have confidence in their new president to ensure a significant recovery of the domestic economy.

Economic expectation of British consumers has continued its descent. Compared to levels one year ago, the indicator has fallen by 14.8 points to reach -20.7 points, a clear evidence of insecurity among British consumers in regards to the upcoming Brexit. Italian consumers continue to be among the most pessimistic in the EU. Their economic expectation fell at the end of the second quarter by 24.2 points to -55.5 points compared with the same period in the previous year. This is the lowest value of all of the EU-area countries participating in the study.