Apple Forecasted for Record Market Share in 2026

Apple is expected to expand its market share in the smartphone, PC, tablet, and smartwatch categories throughout 2026, according to a forecast from Counterpoint Research. The firm reports that Apple’s smartphone, laptop, and tablet segments are reaching historic highs in market share, contrasting with other manufacturers currently struggling with the impact of escalating memory component costs. Apple is identified as one of the few providers capable of maintaining growth amidst these industry-wide supply pressures.

“This period highlights Apple’s exceptional resilience within the global technology sector. Market share gains across multiple segments create a compounding effect on the strength of the company's ecosystem,” noted Tarun Pathak, Research Director at Counterpoint Research. He added that as Apple continues to acquire new users across various device categories, it becomes increasingly difficult for competitors to incentivize users to migrate to alternative operating systems.

While iPhone shipments are projected to remain stable in 2026, many competitors are expected to see double-digit declines as they implement price increases to preserve margins. The premium market segment remains better positioned to absorb these costs, as affluent consumers are typically less price-sensitive. Furthermore, the upcoming iPhone 18 Pro series is expected to outperform its predecessor, potentially propelling Apple to a record 25% share of the global smartphone market by 2026.

The broader tablet market is forecasted to contract in 2026 due to memory shortages and inventory adjustments. Yet, Apple is expected to grow, driven by a comprehensive refresh cycle for the iPad. Following the introduction of M5-powered models, new base-level iPads and an updated iPad mini are expected to sustain consumer interest across all price tiers. This strategy allows Apple to better withstand the demand volatility affecting the wider tablet industry.

In the laptop category, the anticipated release of the MacBook Neo is expected to drive significant momentum. Apple’s Mac shipments are projected to grow by 23% year-on-year in 2026, even as the total laptop market is predicted to decline by 11%. Consequently, Apple is expected to achieve the highest market share gains in the laptop segment relative to all other manufacturers.

The smartwatch sector appears less affected by the component crisis, with 1% overall growth projected for 2026. Apple is expected to outpace this growth, supported by the full-year availability of the Apple Watch SE 3 and Watch Ultra 3 models. This follows the company's first major portfolio-wide refresh since 2022.

Apple is also strategically lowering the entry barrier for its ecosystem with more affordable options like the iPhone (e) and the MacBook Neo. This approach is proving effective as other manufacturers are forced to raise prices due to surging component costs. The integration of "Apple Intelligence" is also expected to serve as a major retention factor; if the Siri AI evolution meets consumer expectations, it could initiate a massive multi-device upgrade cycle.

“Apple maintains control over the most critical user touchpoints globally. If executed effectively, personalized Apple Intelligence will function as a powerful differentiator, unlocking a new cycle of upgrades across the entire product lineup,” remarked Varun Mishra, Principal Analyst at Counterpoint Research.