Cellular IoT Connections Forecast to Reach 5.9 Billion by 2035

The cellular Internet of Things (IoT) market is projected to experience robust growth over the next decade, with connectivity expected to reach 5.9 billion connections by 2035, according to new research from Omdia. The analysis evaluates how 5G technologies are restructuring the cellular IoT landscape, identifying three primary innovations driving expansion: 5G RedCap/eRedCap, 5G Massive IoT, and 4G LTE Cat-1bis modules.

The research identifies NB-IoT, mMTC, and eRedCap as the primary growth catalysts for the cellular IoT sector. Collectively, these technologies are forecast to account for 65% of all cellular IoT connections by 2035. Omdia anticipates that eRedCap will achieve greater success than standard RedCap, which has faced adoption hurdles due to high module costs and the gradual rollout of 5G Standalone (SA) networks. The initial eRedCap module launches occurred in 2026, and the technology is expected to benefit from the increasing prevalence of 5G SA infrastructure.

The study observes that while the initial deployment of RedCap was more gradual than anticipated, the past year has shown promise following the release of the latest Apple Watch, which integrates RedCap technology. NB-IoT remains the dominant standard in Asia & Oceania, representing 86% of global module shipments in 2025. LTE-M is also experiencing global expansion, with the Asia & Oceania region projected to secure a 58% market share by 2035. Additionally, the automotive sector is expanding rapidly, with connections forecast to surpass 1 billion by 2035, driven by 5G dominance and V2X communications.

The European market is currently undergoing a structural transition influenced by the Cyber Resilience Act, which mandates secure-by-design products and five-year vulnerability patching. This regulatory environment is accelerating the adoption of eSIM/eUICC and resilient SIM architectures. Meanwhile, in the United States, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and the Inflation Reduction Act are stimulating large-scale deployments in smart grids and EV charging infrastructure, creating high-growth opportunities for ruggedized 4G and 5G modules.

"With 5G SA networks now widely deployed and module pricing expected to be significantly lower from launch, eRedCap will avoid the infrastructure and cost barriers that initially hindered RedCap adoption. The result is a rich technology ecosystem where IoT companies can choose from NB-IoT, LTE-M, Cat-1bis, RedCap, and eRedCap—each optimized for different performance and cost requirements,” explained Alexander Thompson, Senior Analyst for IoT at Omdia.