Chargeback Requests to Surge to 616 Million by 2031

The volume of chargeback requests initiated by cardholders is projected to reach 616 million by 2031, representing an increase of over 50%, according to findings from Juniper Research. This upward trend is attributed to heightened consumer awareness regarding chargeback procedures via social media and a rising incidence of intentional "friendly fraud."

The report indicates that this surge in volume is compelling merchants to adopt automated systems, which offer superior scalability compared to manual processes. The transition is largely driven by the high costs associated with manual labor; significant resources are often expended on evaluating chargebacks, gathering evidence, and drafting formal representations. Consequently, some merchants currently decline to contest chargebacks due to the prohibitive operational costs involved.

By implementing intelligent decision-making rules, automated evidence collection, and standardized templates, merchants can substantially reduce manual labor while mitigating revenue loss. However, the research suggests that these automated workflows should remain subject to human oversight to ensure a proper balance between operational efficiency and the quality of output.

“Given the escalating volume of chargebacks, merchants are effectively required to implement automation, which serves as a force multiplier for loss prevention efforts. Nevertheless, because chargeback strategies must be tailored to specific merchant requirements, the 'human-in-the-loop' model remains the most effective approach,” stated report co-author Michael Greenwood.