GenAI Smartphone Share to Reach 45% of Shipments in 2026

GenAI-capable smartphones are projected to represent 45% of global shipments in 2026, increasing from 36% in 2025, according to Counterpoint Research. However, a persistent memory supply crisis is expected to contract total global smartphone shipments by 13.9% year-over-year to 1.08 billion units, the lowest volume on record.

GenAI’s market share is expected to expand further, with capable devices projected to constitute 52% of global shipments by 2027, effectively establishing the technology as a standard industry feature. Apple and Samsung maintain their lead in the GenAI-capable segment, bolstered by significant scale and robust premium portfolios. Following the introduction of the iPhone 17 series, GenAI functionality is now accessible across nearly the entire Apple smartphone lineup. Meanwhile, Samsung has gained an early advantage in implementing agentic AI features, expanding advanced AI experiences across its flagship offerings.

"GenAI capability has become standard in high-end smartphones priced above $400 wholesale, but it has yet to give consumers a compelling reason to upgrade. A clear gap remains between devices that are GenAI capable and those on which users regularly engage with AI features. Bridging this gap will require practical, everyday use cases that deliver consistent value. All major OEMs are racing to embed GenAI features as core differentiators, shifting from cloud-dependent capabilities to on-device AI. Samsung and Google lead with generative photo editing, live translation, and other features, while Apple recently announced it has redesigned Siri AI from the ground up," stated Tarun Pathak, Research Director at Counterpoint Research.

“Apple’s redesigned Siri looks promising. Early beta reviews have been positive, suggesting a significant improvement in leveraging personal context and managing daily tasks. Its deep integration across Apple’s ecosystem and strong focus on privacy provide a distinct competitive advantage. If iOS 27 delivers the fully conversational Siri that Apple has promised, it could help support another iPhone upgrade cycle,” Pathak added.

"The primary shift is now in the AI models powering smartphones, rather than the devices themselves. At the premium end, Google Gemini is central to this layer, supporting Apple's rebuilt Siri, anchoring Samsung's Galaxy AI, and powering overseas devices from major Chinese OEMs. However, this influence is not universal. Chinese brands continue to use their own models domestically, while Apple and Samsung retain proprietary on-device AI capabilities. The shared foundation largely ends at the model layer. OEMs still manage orchestration, user experience, and ecosystem integration, which determine how AI functions, what it can access, and how it interacts with users. This is where the next phase of competition will be decided,” said Karn Chauhan, Senior Analyst at Counterpoint Research.

These developments are coinciding with a significant rise in memory expenditures, which is influencing market dynamics more than feature trends. The entry-level segment is facing the greatest pressure, as elevated component costs are displacing lower-priced hardware. Conversely, premium GenAI models are better positioned to absorb these increases, reinforcing their market standing. For the first time in years, consumers may face higher prices despite receiving fewer hardware improvements. While OEMs are reducing base memory, camera specifications, and SKU variety, a portion of the cost increase will likely be reflected in retail pricing. Consequently, Counterpoint Research anticipates the budget segment will contract, the premium segment will expand, and the refurbished market will grow as consumers extend device lifecycles.

In the long term, memory availability will remain a decisive factor in the expansion of GenAI beyond the high-end sector. The additional DRAM required for model weights maintains device pricing above the $400 wholesale threshold. As supply constraints diminish and on-device model optimization progresses, GenAI will become available on more accessible hardware.