Spectrum Scarcity Threatens Global 6G Gains

6G technology is projected to contribute $1.24 trillion to the global economy by 2040; however, the GSMA warns that spectrum scarcity could jeopardize $520 billion of these anticipated gains. The association’s report estimates next-generation networks will add 0.7% to global GDP, though inadequate spectrum allocation could eliminate 42% of that economic opportunity.

Manufacturing and financial services are expected to represent the largest portions of 6G’s economic impact, contributing 20% and 19% respectively. Construction is forecast to add 13%, while information and communications technology will account for 12%. Geographically, Greater China is projected to gain $390 billion, followed by North America at $290 billion and Europe at $225 billion, depending on infrastructure readiness.

“Contrasting with previous mobile generations, 6G is designed as AI-native,” the GSMA noted, identifying gains across five key domains: AI connectivity, industrial automation, enhanced broadband/FWA, integrated sensing, and non-terrestrial networks. Mid-band spectrum will support roughly 70% of 6G’s economic value, with low-band providing 25% for rural coverage. Consequently, the association urged governments to prioritize immediate spectrum planning to ensure future network performance.

To accommodate anticipated demand, the GSMA recommended making at least 2GHz of mid-band spectrum available by 2030, specifically utilizing the upper 6GHz and 600MHz bands. It further encouraged governments to provide national roadmaps to ensure investment certainty for operators. “Over $500 billion in economic value depends on current spectrum policy,” emphasized John Giusti, GSMA chief regulatory officer, describing spectrum as a foundational growth element.