Global Device Shipments Will Be Flat in 2019

Worldwide shipments of PCs, tablets and mobile phones are on pace to reach 2.21 billion units in 2019, exhibiting flat growth year over year, according to Gartner. The PC market is expected to continue its downward trend, while the mobile phone market is set to return to growth in 2020.

"For the eighth consecutive year, the PC market is at a standstill," said Ranjit Atwal, research director at Gartner. “PC shipments will total 258 million units in 2019, a 0.6 percent decline from 2018.“ Traditional PCs are set to decline 3 percent in 2019 to total 189 million units.

Worldwide Device Shipments by Device Type, 2018-2021 (Millions of Units)

Consumers are increasingly retiring their PCs but not replacing them, with shipments down by another 2.5 million units in 2019. For businesses, the Windows 10 migration continues into the next phase. While the U.S. is now in the final phase, China having delayed their migration still has a few years to go. Gartner analysts predict that Windows 10 will represent 75 percent of the professional PC market by 2021.

Shipments of mobile phones are estimated to reach 1.8 billion units in 2019, a decline of 0.5 percent year over year. “Users have reached a threshold for new technology and applications, which means that unless new models provide significant new utility, efficiency or experiences, users don’t want or need to upgrade,“ said Roberta Cozza, research director at Gartner. “As a result, we expect the high-end mobile phone market to continue to show a decline in mature markets during 2019.“

In 2020, the mobile phone market is forecast to return to growth, with a shipments increase of 1.2 percent from 2019. Nevertheless, vendors need to realize that consumers are extending the lifetime of their phones. Gartner expects the average high-end phone lifetime to increase from 2.6 years to 2.8 years through 2023.

While Gartner analysts expect foldable phones to potentially re-inject innovation in the smartphone market, they are cautious about their short-term uptake due to trade-offs. Gartner estimates that foldable phones will account for 5 percent of high-end phones by 2023, amounting to 30 million units. In the short term, Gartner analysts expect manufacturers to provide more form factor experimentation with foldable phones, as they aim to understand optimal usability patterns and user preferences.