Over 1 Billion GenAI Smartphones to Ship During 2024-2027 Period

This year will be pivotal for Generative AI (GenAI) smartphones with preliminary data projecting their shipments to reach over 100 million units in 2024, according to Counterpoint Research. By 2027, GenAI smartphone shipments should reach 522 million units, growing at a CAGR of 83%.

Counterpoint Research defines GenAI smartphones as a subset of AI smartphones that uses Generative AI to create original content, rather than just providing pre-programmed responses or performing predefined tasks. These devices will run size-optimized AI models natively and come with certain hardware specifications. Short-term GenAI landscape sees OEM roadmaps touching on four main areas – info provisioning, image building, live translation, and personal assistant applications.

Samsung and Qualcomm are immediate leaders as current product offerings and capabilities position them as first movers. Similar to what it did with foldables, Samsung is likely to capture almost 50% share for the next two years, followed by key Chinese OEMs like Xiaomi, vivo, HONOR, and OPPO. Samsung earlier highlighted the use case of its Galaxy AI on smartphones. This is one example of how OEMs are geared to differentiate their upcoming smartphones and GenAI will play a key role in that differentiation. Qualcomm is likely to capture over 80% of the GenAI smartphone market for the next two years. MediaTek is likely to catch up with its Dimensity 9300-based devices.

“The share of GenAI smartphones in the overall smartphone market will be in single digits through next year. But those numbers will not accurately reflect the amount of excitement and marketing hyperbole we are expecting to see,” said Tarun Pathak, Research Director at Counterpoint Research. “We are working to a standard definition developed with our clients and partners, reflecting inputs from across these key players. Next year is about learning and we expect GenAI smartphones to hit an inflection point in 2026 as the devices permeate through the broader price segments.”

“AI has been a feature of smartphones for the last few years. We now expect to see the emergence of smartphones optimized to run GenAI models in addition to the normal use of AI in smartphones,“ said Peter Richardson, VP & Research Director at Counterpoint Research. “The likely use cases will include creating more personalized content, smarter digital assistants with unique personalities and conversation styles, content recommendations, and more. However, this will also require addressing issues like running into memory constraints and will likely lead to a hybrid approach in some cases. Nonetheless, one thing is for certain – we are entering an era where smartphone users no longer need to align to their devices; it will be the other way around with GenAI smartphones.”