Smartphone Market Will Face Another Challenging Year

According to IDC, global smartphone shipments will face another challenging year in 2019 with volumes forecast to decline 1.9% from 2018. This will mark the third consecutive year of market contraction driven by highly saturated markets in developed countries and slower churn in some developing economies.

IDC expects shipments in the first half of 2019 (1H19) will be down 5.5% compared to 1H18, but the second half of the year should see shipment growth of 1.4% driven by 5G acceleration, a growing selection of lower-priced premium handsets, and on-going uplift from markets like India.

While developing markets still have a lot of upsides, some market momentum has been lost as the transition from feature phone to smartphone has started to slow. In all markets, pricing remains a critical decision factor when purchasing a new handset, and this is creating new opportunities for mid-range price points. However, the most significant and most uncertain market factor is how the U.S.-China trade dispute will play out over the year.

While design innovation will remain the industry's center of attention, 5G momentum is also in full swing globally and device OEMs, component suppliers, telcos, and services companies are actively investing in establishing an early lead. IDC expects 5G smartphones to experience a slow start in 2019, capturing just 0.5% of total shipments. But the ramp up will be quick across all markets, driving 5G to account for 26.3% of worldwide shipments in 2023.

As expected, Android's smartphone share will increase slightly to 86.7% in 2019 from 85.1% in 2018 mostly due to launches of several new models, including a handful of 5G devices announced or coming to market in 2H19. Volumes are expected to grow at a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.1% with shipments of 1.32 billion in 2023. Android average selling prices (ASPs) are estimated to grow by 5.8% in 2019 to US$269, up from US$254 in 2018.

2019 is expected to be another challenging year for new iPhone shipments with volumes expected to drop to 183.5 million, down 12.1% year over year. Apple is not likely to deliver a 5G handset in 2019, but given that many telcos and markets are still trying to figure out their 5G strategy, it's unlikely this will impact its market share. It is worth noting that Apple is beginning to sell more of its official refurbished iPhones, which creates a sizeable hardware revenue stream and, more importantly, maintain or expand its iOS installed base.