TV Time in the US Will Grow for First Time Since 2012

As stay-at-home orders remain in effect due to COVID-19, TV viewership and time spent is getting an unexpected bump in the US, according to eMarketer. Once the pandemic is over, the company expects both to decline again.

Traditional TV will add 8.3 million US viewers this year, the first time viewership has seen positive growth since 2011. In 2020, the number of TV viewers will increase to 287.3 million, driven by older Americans, but with growth across age groups. Total viewership will begin falling again in 2021.

More people are watching TV and spending more time doing so. eMarketer expects average daily TV viewing time among Americans to grow this year by 19 minutes to 2 hours, 46 minutes per day. This is the first time since 2012 that time spent with traditional TV will grow. Previous forecast from 4Q19 expected TV time to decline this year to 2 hours, 20 minutes.

“Consumers will undoubtedly be fixated on their TVs more in 2020 due to stay-at-home orders, continued interest in up-to-date news on the pandemic and increasingly, more leisure time due to increasing unemployment rates,“ said eMarketer forecasting analyst Oscar Orozco.

The 2020 boost in TV time will not last beyond the pandemic, however. Once things return to normal, TV time will continue its downward trajectory. By the end of 2021, daily TV time among Americans will decline by 8 minutes to 2 hours, 38 minutes per day. Coming off the 2020 bump, this will be higher than the 2 hours, 12 minutes per day that eMarketer previously forecast for 2021.

More viewers and viewing time are not translating into increased ad spending, however. US TV ad spending will decline by between 22.3% and 29.3% in 1H20. That’s about $10 billion to $12 billion less than the $72.00 billion we previously anticipated.

“The loss of sports programming will directly cause a large drop in ad spending,“ said eMarketer principal analyst Nicole Perrin. “We expect TV advertisers to take a wait-and-see approach as the economy continues to stall. With consumers stuck at home, many find themselves having more time on their hands and thus greater interest in watching TV. But that coincides with millions of newly unemployed or underemployed consumers who will have to keep an eye on their personal finances.“