According to Canalys, total shipments of desktops, notebooks, and workstations grew 7.4% to 67.6 million units in 2Q25. Notebook shipments hit 53.9 million units, up 7% compared with a year ago. Shipments of desktops rose 9% to 13.7 million units.

Q2 volumes were driven by commercial PC deployments ahead of the Windows 10 end of support, now only a few months away. Consumer demand was weaker, as customers globally face an uncertain macroeconomic future. The Trump administration’s ever-changing and unclear approach to tariffs continues to generate considerable uncertainty. While PCs were exempt from tariffs in Q2, indirect impacts threaten not only the US but the global PC market recovery.

“The Trump administration’s evolving tariff policies continue to reshape global PC supply chains while casting significant uncertainty over market recovery,” said Ben Yeh, Principal Analyst at Canalys. “US imports of PCs have dramatically shifted away from China toward Vietnam as manufacturers seek to avoid potential tariffs. Although Trump’s reciprocal tariffs have been delayed again, this time to 1 August, and PCs currently remain exempt from tariffs regardless of origin, the underlying uncertainty persists.”

The recent US-Vietnam trade deal establishes a 20% tariff on Vietnamese goods and a 40% tariff on transshipped items. “What began as straightforward China avoidance has evolved into a complex regulatory maze. The key question is whether PCs manufactured in Vietnam using Chinese components or through Chinese-controlled operations will be classified as transshipments and face the 40% tariff. With enforcement criteria still undefined, market players face the reality that supply chain diversification alone may not provide the cost stability they initially sought,” added Yeh.

“Despite global uncertainty, the Windows 10 end of support deadline this October is providing essential market stability, but is affecting consumer and commercial segments differently,” said Kieren Jessop, Research Manager at Canalys. “The commercial refresh cycle is providing vital momentum for the market. A June poll of channel partners found over half expect their PC business to grow in the second half of 2025, with 29% anticipating growth of over 10%. While businesses are displaying a greater sense of urgency in reacting to the end of Windows 10, consumers are delaying purchases amid macroeconomic uncertainty. As those consumer purchases are pushed into 2026, we anticipate the consumer PC market to grow next year as it coincides with a potential refresh cycle of COVID-era devices, which are starting to reach their end of life.”

In 2Q25, Lenovo retained its position as the global PC market leader, shipping 17.0 million desktops and notebooks, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%. HP held second place with 14.1 million units shipped, marking a 3.2% annual increase. Dell, in third, saw a 3.0% decline in shipments, totaling 9.8 million units. Apple secured fourth place with an impressive 21.3% growth, reaching 6.4 million units and a 9.4% market share. Asus completed the top five with 18.4% growth, shipping 5.0 million units.

Happy New Year 2019!

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