eSIM Connections to Grow 300 Percent in the Next 5 Years

A new study by Juniper Research has revealed that 4.9 billion cellular connections will use eSIMs by 2030, rising from 1.2 billion in 2025. This substantial growth will be driven mainly by the recent support for eSIM technology from Tier 1 operators in China, who have all now fully embraced it. This development has immediately expanded the total addressable market by over 1.7 billion mobile subscriptions this year, creating significant growth opportunities for industry stakeholders.

“We expect eSIM-connected smartphones in China to surge to 364 million by 2030, despite operators in the country only commencing eSIM capabilities this year. This is a substantial growth from less than 1 million smartphones using eSIMs by the end of 2025,” explained Ardit Ballhysa, Senior Research Analyst at Juniper Research.

To succeed in China, Juniper Research believes that eSIM vendors must navigate the country’s unique regulatory complexities. Notably, stakeholders must accommodate mandatory real-name registration using a government-issued ID to provision a mobile subscription, a challenge unique to China.

To overcome this, Juniper Research believes that novel solutions that remotely authenticate government IDs to enable remote eSIM provisioning are essential to large-scale eSIM growth in the country. “Manual identification checks remove the benefits of seamless provisioning of profiles for eSIMs and add substantial friction to the process. eSIM vendors must approach the market in China with bespoke solutions that can automate these ID checks,” concluded Ballhysa.