German PC Market Will Rebound in 2024

The German PC market is expected to continue declining in the third quarter of 2023 at a year-on-year rate of 6.2%, according to IDC. The outlook for the rest of the year remains bleak, with shipment volume forecast at 9.6 million units in 2023, a 14.8% drop compared to last year, as vendors and distributors remain cautious in the face of the German economic recession. However, IDC expects the PC shipment contraction in the second half of 2023 to be less severe than in the previous 12 months, as the basis for comparison is now lower.

"The German PC market is expected to return to positive growth in the fourth quarter of 2023, after six consecutive quarters of year-on-year decline," says Malini Paul, senior research manager for European Devices at IDC. "The PC market recovery will continue in 2024 and beyond at a slow pace, thanks to an anticipated healthy inventory and a strong pipeline of deals".

IDC projects 8.1% year-on-year growth for the German PC market in 2024, as shipment seasonality is expected to normalize after years characterized by a lockdown-induced boom-and-bust cycle. The supply chain constraints during the boom period led to a backlog, which has been deployed in the bust phase, resulting in large inventories.

“The market hasn’t really returned to normal since the pandemic hit,” says Daniel Goncalves, senior research manager, European Devices, IDC. “As inventory returns to healthy levels and all participants in the PC supply chain keep adjusting to the current reality of demand, PC sell-in will start aligning with a sell-out."

Germany's market dynamics reflect that of the overall Western European region, where a sudden drop in demand led to aggressive pricing strategies and curtailment of shipments by vendors. IDC projects a year-on-year decline of 5.6% in the Western European PC market in 3Q23 and a double-digit decline for the whole of 2023.