Sovereign Verticals to Spend $15 Billion on LEO Connectivity by 2030

Enterprises with fail-safe, mission-critical connectivity needs will spend $15.3 billion on low-earth orbit (LEO) satellite connectivity by 2030, according to Omdia. Broadband connectivity will account for 94% of LEO enterprise revenues, with direct-to-device (D2D) subscriptions making up the remaining 6%.

“The heartland of LEO opportunity lies among public and private enterprises with isolated operations and high-performance requirements spanning network security and data sovereignty,” said Pablo Tomasi, Principal Analyst for Future Wireless at Omdia. “Using satellite to bridge the digital divide will not pay all the bills.”

The report found that the enterprise target market is growing. “Sovereign verticals” is Omdia’s term for enterprises with geographically vast, high-dependency networks. This includes critical industries like public safety and defense, as well as transportation and energy. Satellite is now a make-or-break service for telcos, Omdia said.  Enterprises want convergent ‘anywhere’ connectivity – dependable service irrespective of technology. This is forcing telecom operators to sell on a promised service experience using multiple connectivity types.

North America currently dominates the market. The region, led by the United States, will remain the largest enterprise satellite market through 2030, representing 37% of the market opportunity. Oceania, Eastern and Southeastern Asia, led by China, will grow from 9% of revenue share in 2025 to 33% by 2030. The report also underscored that LEO D2D will struggle to grow revenues. Direct-to-device services do not match the experience of cellular, and unique use cases are limited. Most D2D will be bundled with premium offerings and therefore not directly monetized.