Agentic Commerce Set to Generate $1.5 Trillion by 2030

A new study by Juniper Research has found that agentic commerce spending will reach $1.5 trillion in 2030. The growth will occur from pilot deployments in 2025 and 2026.

The study found that despite strong predicted growth, trust will remain the number one barrier to agentic commerce deployment. Over time, as AI product discoverability, AI agent use, and trust grow, agentic commerce will develop into an important access channel, but will not replace traditional eCommerce checkouts for the foreseeable future.

As part of the study, Juniper Research released its 2026 Competitor Leaderboard for Agentic Commerce Payments Infrastructure Providers. The three leading payment vendors are Mastercard, Visa, and Stripe. The Competitor Leaderboard analysed 14 leading providers, and ranked them based on criteria including specific capabilities enabling agentic flows and participation in agentic commerce protocols.  

“Agentic commerce is all about early mover advantage, and indeed, the top players have moved quickly to build the rails needed for agentic commerce payments. Early participation in frameworks has been highly beneficial, and as agentic commerce broadens, these frameworks and protocols will be vital for payment provider success,” commented Nick Maynard, VP of Fintech Market Research at Juniper Research.

A limiting factor to agentic commerce is the highly fragmented payments market, with many different local payment methods. As such, payment service providers face a major challenge in integrating the right methods, but also a major opportunity to capture early market share if they get this mix right.