AI Will Shut Down National Critical Infrastructure in a G20 Country by 2028

Gartner predicts that by 2028, misconfigured AI in cyber-physical systems (CPS) will shut down national critical infrastructure in a G20 country. Safe override mode in AI systems supporting the national critical infrastructure is essential to ensure ultimate human control.

“The next great infrastructure failure may not be caused by hackers or natural disasters but rather by a well-intentioned engineer, a flawed update script, or a misplaced decimal,” said Wam Voster, VP Analyst at Gartner. “A secure ‘kill-switch’ or override mode accessible only to authorized operators is essential for safeguarding national infrastructure from unintended shutdowns caused by an AI misconfiguration.”

Misconfigured AI can autonomously shut down vital services, misinterpret sensor data, or trigger unsafe actions. This can result in physical damage or large-scale service disruption, posing direct threats to public safety and economic stability by compromising control of key systems like power grids or manufacturing plants.

“Modern AI models are so complex they often resemble ‘black boxes,’” said Voster. “Even developers cannot always predict how small configuration changes will impact the emergent behavior of the model. The more opaque these systems become, the greater the risk posed by misconfiguration. Hence, it is even more important that humans can intervene when needed.”

To mitigate risks, Gartner recommends that chief information security officers (CISOs) implement safe override modes and create digital twins. Developing a full-scale digital twin of the systems supporting critical infrastructure is crucial for realistic testing of updates and changes to configurations before deployment. Companies should also mandate real-time monitoring with rollback mechanisms for changes made to AI in CPS, while also ensuring the creation of national AI incident response teams.