Apple Set to Surpass Samsung in Shipments in 2025

Global smartphone shipments are expected to grow 3.3% in 2025, according to Counterpoint Research. Apple’s smartphone shipments have performed strongly throughout 2025, particularly in Q3.

Counterpoint forecasts that the brand’s shipments will reach a global share of 19.4% in 2025, making Apple the world’s No.1 smartphone OEM for the first time since 2011. Samsung’s shipments are also expected to grow 4.6% and reach a global share of 18.7%, yet the company will relinquish the top spot it has held for more than a decade. iPhone shipments exceeded expectations in 3Q25, posting a solid 9% YoY growth for the quarter. The launch of the iPhone 17 series marked a shift in Apple’s usual lineup, with the new iPhone Air replacing the Plus model, accompanied by adjustments in memory configurations and pricing tiers.

“Beyond the highly positive market reception for the iPhone 17 series, the key driver behind the upgraded shipment outlook lies in the replacement cycle reaching its inflection point. Consumers who purchased smartphones during the COVID-19 boom are now entering their upgrade phase. Furthermore, 358 million second-hand iPhones were sold between 2023 and 2Q25. These users are also likely to upgrade to a new iPhone in the coming years. These factors will form a sizable demand base, which is expected to sustain iPhone shipment growth over the coming quarters,” said Yang Wang, Senior Analyst at Counterpoint Research.

Elsewhere, Apple also benefited from lower-than-expected tariff impacts globally and a truce in the US-China trade and tech war. This not only helped Apple’s supply chain and the ongoing efforts to diversify manufacturing bases, but also aggregate demand in its key growth regions, i.e., emerging markets. Appreciating domestic currencies versus the US dollar and a resilient economic outlook boosted consumer confidence. With these structural tailwinds, Apple is well-positioned to surpass Samsung in annual shipments in 2025.

Samsung is expected to see a decent 5% shipment growth in 2025, supported by a resilient supply chain that has absorbed much of the tariff impact. A strategic pivot for the A series, featuring stronger specifications and competitive pricing, will further reinforce Samsung’s momentum in emerging markets, especially as key regions such as India, Southeast Asia (SEA), and the Middle East and Africa (MEA) continue on a solid growth trajectory. In mature markets, the ongoing premiumization trend, combined with stabilizing fundamentals in North America, Europe, and East Asia, is expected to help Samsung defend its market share over the next few years. However, despite these positive tailwinds, Samsung is still expected to fall short of reclaiming the top global OEM position from 2025 through 2029 as the mid-lower end faces increasing competition from Chinese OEMs.

Chinese OEMs are increasingly relying on overseas markets for future growth, as regions such as India, SEA, MEA, and Latin America (LATAM) offer a more visible growth trajectory than the saturated and fiercely competitive domestic market. At the same time, these companies are shifting toward higher price segments, investing in premium devices, AI capabilities, and foldables to boost profitability and reduce reliance on the crowded low-end market. Supply chain uncertainties, however, continue to pose constraints on expansion.

Of particular concern is the growing shortage of LPDDR4 memory and skyrocketing prices in most memory products, posing significant challenges for Chinese OEMs, particularly affecting the low-end smartphone segment. As a result, Counterpoint remains cautious about Chinese OEMs’ growth in 2026, expecting only a 1.7% YoY growth for the top four Chinese OEMs (Xiaomi, Transsion, vivo, and OPPO). Nevertheless, Chinese OEMs are moving away from volume-driven strategies toward more balanced, value-oriented growth, supported by broader global diversification. As a result, the focus on shipments and market share will gradually become less important, and Chinese OEMs can carve a path towards greater revenue strength.