Counterpoint Revised Down Its 2026 Smartphone Forecasts

Global smartphone shipments are expected to decline 2.1% in 2026 as surging component costs are likely to impact demand, according to Counterpoint Research. This 2.1% decline translates into a 2.6%pt downward revision in Countrpoint's 2026 forecast, with key Chinese OEMs like HONOR, OPPO, and vivo seeing the biggest deltas from previous estimates.

“What we are seeing now is the low end of the market (below $200) being impacted most severely, with BoM (bill of materials) costs increasing by 20%-30% since the beginning of the year,” said Research Director MS Hwang. “The market’s mid- and high-end segments have seen 10%-15% price increases.” Memory prices could rise another 40% through 2Q26, resulting in BoM costs increasing anywhere between 8% and over 15% above current elevated levels. 

“In the lower price bands, steep price increases on smartphones are not sustainable,” said Senior Analyst Yang Wang. “And if cost pass-through isn’t possible, OEMs will start pruning parts of their portfolios – that’s actually what we are starting to see with significantly reduced volumes of low-end SKUs.”

As a result of cost pass-through and portfolio restructuring, we expect average selling prices (ASPs) to increase by 6.9% next year, revised up from 3.9% in our previous ASP forecast released in September 2025. Smartphone makers best positioned to weather supply shortages will be those with scale, broad product portfolios (especially at the high end), and tight vertical integration.

“Apple and Samsung are best positioned to weather the next few quarters,” continued Wang. “But it will be tough for others that don’t have as much wiggle room to manage market share versus profit margins. We will see this play out especially with the Chinese OEMs as the year progresses.”

“In some models, we are seeing downgrades of components like camera modules and periscope solutions, displays, audio components, and, of course, memory configurations,” said Senior Analyst Shenghao Bai. “Other tactics include reusing old components, streamlining the portfolio, and pushing consumers to higher-specification ‘Pro’ variants and adopting new designs to stimulate upgrades.”