EMEA PC Market Set for its Strongest Growth on Record in 1Q21

Shipments of traditional PCs in EMEA region will total 96.4 million in 2021, a 16.0% YoY growth, according to IDC. Once again, continuing lockdowns across the region will result in maintained demand for devices that enable work/study/play-from-home use cases throughout the first half of 2021, with the strongest growth on record in 1Q21 (39.1%).

The Western European commercial market is expected to post strong growth (25.6%) in 1Q21 and will continue to grow double digits until the third quarter of the year, supported by large ongoing education tenders that still need to be completed. There is also strong demand in the government segment and private sector as employees continue to purchase devices to support remote working.

"As lockdown durations continue beyond the expectations of many, the unprecedented demand for personal computing devices continues in parallel," said Simon Thomas, research analyst, IDC Western Europe Personal Computing. "The continuation of businesses' shift toward mobile working solutions compounded with sustained consumer desire for entertainment while remaining at home during the pandemic will result in persevering demand for mobile devices. This will result in strong growth despite numerous constraints caused by supply chain difficulties.

The Western European consumer market is anticipated to stick to its impressive trajectory with an exceptional growth of 60.5% in the first quarter of 2021, which is set to be its strongest growth on record. Desktop is expected to post healthy growth of 21.6% in the same period, primarily supported by strong gaming traction, the demand for which has proven to be largely unimpacted by the launch of the latest-generation games consoles. Unsurprisingly, mobile form factors are poised to drive another record-breaking quarter. The overall transition from desktop to notebook and the change in consumer demands from one device per-household to one device per-person continue to fuel huge notebook demand, with expected growth of 70.2%.

The new PC forecast for the regions of CEE and MEA was adjusted substantially upwards not just for 1Q21, but for the entire year. "Demand for PCs has not slowed down," said Nikolina Jurisic, Senior Research Manager IDC EMEA. "On the contrary, it continues to be very strong across all commercial sectors as well as in the consumer space in reaction to pandemic. Constraints in the supply chain are a contributor to the ongoing backlog, which continues to cause delay in volume shipments and is contributing to a very low-inventory cycle in the channel. Extensive PC backlogs created in 2020 will land in the current year, driving additional growth.

The CEE region is expected to ship around 4.4 million PCs in 1Q21, slightly down from the previous quarter. The education segment will remain a major growth generator across many countries in the region, reaching volumes of just below 1.3 million PCs by the end of the year. The MEA region, with smaller volumes, is expected to ship around 3.3 million PCs in 1Q21, resulting in a small QoQ growth of 3%. Demand in the MEA region will be driven most aggressively by the consumer space, although as in CEE, commercial sectors are expected to remain buoyant.