Fraudulent eCommerce Transactions to Surpass $131 Billion by 2030

New research from Juniper Research has found that eCommerce fraud will rise from $56 billion in 2025 to $131 billion in 2030, posting a 133% increase over the period. This surge is fueled by rising friendly fraud, where legitimate transactions are being fraudulently disputed.

“The fastest-growing form of eCommerce fraud is not criminals breaking in, it is bad actors blending in. A significant proportion of consumers file disputes without first contacting merchants, and many disputes stem from misunderstanding or misuse of promotions and chargeback systems, increasing losses,” explained Shane O’Sullivan, Research Analyst at Juniper Research.

The research found that friendly fraud is heavily impacting merchant margins, with chargebacks in particular increasingly triggering higher processing fees. The report highlights that businesses will accelerate investment in prevention systems, particularly in North America, which is disproportionately impacted by friendly fraud. As such, by 2030, over 70% of global eCommerce fraud prevention spend will be from North America. Fraud prevention specialists must position systems as essential margin-protection infrastructure, enabling merchants to contain fraud costs before they scale alongside transaction volumes.

“Vendors are building AI-driven, fraud prevention platforms; moving fraud prevention to a proactive footing. Simultaneously, regulators are expanding digital identity frameworks and tightening compliance. Together, this creates a competitive ecosystem where innovation and accuracy are key differentiators. As abuse becomes increasingly driven by specific accounts and identities, prevention vendors must shift away from securing individual transactions and pivot towards persistent identity signals,” concluded O’Sullivan.