Netflix Viewership in the US To Decline for the First Time

Netflix viewership in the US could get worse before it gets better, according to the latest OTT video service users forecast from Insider Intelligence. At the same time, Disney+ is on pace to surpass 100 million viewers as double-digit growth continues for the young streaming platform.

Insider Intelligence is forecasting a drop in US Netflix viewers this year—for the first time—as high inflation causes cost-conscious consumers to be deterred by the platform’s price hike last January. This year, they expect Netflix to have 169.3 million individual viewers, down 2.3% from last year. “Netflix is losing viewers to lower-priced competitors that are pouring massive resources into content development,“ said Oscar Bruce Jr., senior forecasting analyst at Insider Intelligence. “Its price increase and the availability of bundles and deals for other services have put Netflix at a big disadvantage as consumers deal with soaring inflation.“

Netflix now holds a 65.6% share of digital video viewers in the US, down from 68.4% in 2021. User growth will turn positive again next year, once Netflix launches its ad-supported tier. However, its share of both US digital video viewers and OTT video service viewers will not reach 2021 levels for the foreseeable future as competitors eat into Netflix’s share of the market. “The ad-supported tier will be critical in attracting and retaining price-sensitive viewers,“ Bruce said. “This will allow Netflix to boost average revenue per user while avoiding—or at least limiting—future price increases.“

Disney+, Netflix’s much younger competitor, is still growing robustly. This year, the US viewership is expected to grow by 13.6% to reach 108.7 million, surpassing 100 million for the first time. Growth will remain in the double digits into next year, then decline to single digits for the remainder of our forecast. By 2026, Disney+ will have 147.2 million viewers, almost on par with Hulu. Netflix will have 180.9 million. “There’s a chance that Disney will acquire Comcast’s share of Hulu by 2024,“ Bruce said. “Disney’s CEO recently said they’d love to integrate Hulu into Disney+, and that could happen once Comcast is out of the picture.“ Disney+ currently captures an increasing 42.1% of digital video viewers. By 2025, it will capture more than half.

YouTube has been the dominant player in the OTT video space since Insider Intelligence began tracking the company in 2010, which is expected given that most of its content is free. This year, it will have 231.5 million viewers, up 2.3% over last year. By 2026, its viewership in the US will reach nearly 250 million.