Vendors face significant scientific and technical challenges over the next decade in bringing fault-tolerant quantum computers to the market that show a meaningful advantage over classical computers for commercially relevant applications, according to Omdia. Succeeding will require close alignment with the needs and preferences of their customers, the adopters of quantum computing (QC) who are investing now to experiment and prepare for a “quantum advantage” that may only come 5 – 10 years from now.

Based on two Omdia surveys with adopters and vendors, respectively, it appears there are significant gaps in perceptions and preferences between these two groups. The vendors responding to Omdia’s Quantum Computing Vendor Survey (located in North America, Europe, Asia & Oceania, and the Middle East & Africa) stated that adopters were most interested in “optimization” as a primary use case. They ranked “QML” third, behind “physical simulation”. However, Omdia’s Quantum Computing Adopter Survey (located in the US, China, and Germany) found that “QML” was rated as their top use case at 64% versus 19% for “physical simulation” and 18% for “complex optimization”. This difference could lead to the misallocation of resources and missed opportunities to engage with adopters in the ways that adopters most need.

Vendors and adopters both agreed that “insufficient internal expertise” was the top adopter challenge and “futureproofed as QC technology evolves” was the leading necessary vendor characteristic. However, on virtually every other choice to these two questions, the two groups diverged widely. Vendor respondents ranked “won’t integrate with existing systems” last as an adopter challenge, while adopter respondents ranked it third in importance. These types of disconnects also pose a risk to market development as vendors plan their product strategies.

“Vendors already face a steep path ahead to deliver on the promises of quantum computing. Ensuring that they are aligned with the needs and preferences of the adopters who are spending money today to experiment and learn will be crucial for the smooth development of this market over the next decade,” stated Sam Lucero, Chief Analyst for Quantum Computing at Omdia.