A new study from Juniper Research forecasts that SMS’s market share by value will reduce to 32% of global mobile messaging revenue by 2029, down from 45% in 2024. This 13% drop occurs at a time when the demand for mobile messaging traffic is increasing significantly, growing from 189 trillion messages sent in 2024 to 280 trillion in 2029.
The report cites fraudulent SMS activity, excessive pricing, and the availability of richer alternatives as driving the decline of SMS, prompting enterprises to seek alternative channels for communications. The study urges operators to reduce the price point of A2P (Application-to-Person) SMS through regulated international delivery rates, stabilizing pricing to ensure they capitalize on the growing demand for messaging.
The study identified RCS and OTT as the channels expected to disrupt the future mobile messaging market, providing feature-rich content and improved security. However, Juniper Research advised that mobile messaging vendors must proactively ensure fraud prevention through universal RCS standards and interoperable verification over OTT messaging channels. This, they say, will ensure that high-spending enterprises find appeal in these rich media channels.
“RCS and OTT messaging capitalize on a growing demand for conversational messaging among users. In response, operators must guarantee that the pricing of RCS is more competitive than that of SMS to avoid losing out to OTT messaging. OTT messaging co-existed with SMS, and we are anticipating a similar trend with RCS and OTT messaging,” remarked research author Georgia Allen.
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