Digital Goods Fraud to Cost Merchants $27 Billion by 2030

A new study by Juniper Research has revealed that the transaction value of fraudulent digital goods is outpacing physical goods fraud, rising 162% from a base of $10.4 billion in 2025. The report highlights synthetic identity use, promo-abuse, and friendly fraud as key drivers behind the surge in digital goods fraud, with fraudsters using AI tools to reach scale.

“Mobile-first purchasing, gaming, streaming, and apps are widening the attack surface for fraudsters. Instant delivery provides a near-zero intervention time, meaning traditional fraud tools struggle to detect and block fraud before fulfilment. The rise of synthetic identity fraud and credential-stuffing attacks is also enabling far more sophisticated, high-impact risks,” explained Shane O’Sullivan, Research Analyst at Juniper Research.

Juniper Research’s analysis revealed that the fastest-growing attacks stem from behaviour that appears legitimate: authorised accounts, valid payment credentials, and clean device histories. This evolving pattern, fuelled by continuous leaking of credentials and AI-driven spoofing, creates fraud that mimics genuine customers, resulting in systems treating it as benign until fulfilment is complete. As such, the report identified the next generation of fraud defence as shifting from identifying ’bad transactions’ to modelling intent, behavioural deviation, contextual identity, and detecting cross-merchant reputation signals by incorporating advanced AI models.

“The reduced time to intervene means eCommerce fraud prevention providers must shift to AI-powered, real-time prevention. If these providers fail to implement proactive techniques such as behavioural biometrics, merchants will drown in increased fraud risks, eroding profitability.” O’Sullivan concluded.