IDC Decreases Its Smartphone Forecast; Ups PC Expectations

Worldwide smartphone shipments are forecast to grow 0.6% year-over-year in 2025 to 1.24 billion units, according to IDC. The forecast was reduced from the 2.3% growth in the February forecast, due to high uncertainty, tariff volatility and macro-economic challenges such as inflation and unemployment across many regions leading to a slowdown in consumer spending.

Growth will remain in the low single digits throughout the forecast period, with a five-year (2024-2029) compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.4% due to increasing smartphone penetration, lengthening refresh cycles, and cannibalization from used smartphones. Despite the increased tensions, the US and China are driving the 0.6% growth this year. China is forecast to grow 3%, driven by government subsidies, which will stimulate demand and continue to boost Android. In contrast, Apple is forecast to decline 1.9% in 2025 due to ongoing competition from Huawei, an overall economic slowdown, and the ineligibility of a majority of its models for government subsidies capped at 6,000 Yuan. However, heavy discounts during the upcoming 618 shopping festival and the anticipated iPhone 17 launch with significant hardware upgrades are expected to boost demand and limit further decline.

"The US Market is forecast to grow 1.9% in 2025, but it was impacted by the ongoing US-China trade war as growth was pulled down from 3.3% due to increased uncertainty and tariff-related price increases,” said Anthony Scarsella, research director with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. "Further negative impact was prevented by the unique structure of the US smartphone market, where the majority of devices are bought through carriers, which help fuel demand by offering robust trade-in deals and interest-free financing programs. As a result, the forecasted 4% growth in average selling prices of smartphones will have less immediate impact on consumers, especially with many new premium devices launching in the second half of the year.”

“Since April 2nd, the smartphone industry has faced a whirlwind of uncertainty. While current exemptions on smartphones have offered temporary relief, the looming possibility of broader tariffs presents a serious risk,” said Nabila Popal, senior research director with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. “Recent signals from the US administration on potential tariff hikes on smartphones manufactured outside the US further complicate long-term strategic planning for OEMs. Smartphone vendors — particularly those shipping to the US — must now navigate complex geopolitics alongside ongoing supply chain diversification efforts. Despite these headwinds, India and Vietnam are expected to remain the key alternatives to China for smartphone production. However, additional tariffs of 20-30% on US-bound smartphones could post a serious downside risk to the current U.S. market outlook.”

On the other hand, IDC is increasing its traditional PC forecast for 2025. This comes despite the significant impact that US tariffs have had on their trading partners’ market sentiment. Global PC volume is now expected to reach 274 million in 2025, growing by 4.1% over the prior year. Beyond 2025, IDC forecasts a slight contraction in 2026 due in part to volume stabilization following Windows 11 migration and a more difficult comparison given a stronger market in 2025.

“The 90-day pause and tariffs exemption applied to personal computers, combined with a definite level of uncertainty on what will happen after the 90-day pause, is motivating PC manufacturers to seize the moment and ship larger than anticipated volumes in the US,” said Jean Philippe Bouchard, research VP with IDC's Worldwide PC Trackers. “However, expectations of worsening macroeconomic conditions around the world and in the US, characterized by upward pressures on prices and degrading consumer sentiment, will impact the PC market in the second half of 2025. Nonetheless, IDC expects commercial demand for PCs to be healthy in 2025 as the Windows 11 migration continues steadily.”

“Despite budget pressures on organizations, EMEA’s traditional PC market is set to grow through 2Q25 and beyond, driven by the end of Windows 10 support and COVID-era refresh cycles," said Malini Paul, senior research manager of Devices Research at IDC. "While enterprises and the public sector led early demand, accelerating upgrades from SMBs are poised to be the real game changers in the second half of the year.”