D2C Revenue Set for $370 Million Surge

A new study by Juniper Research has found that satellite provider revenue from direct-to-cell (D2C) will exceed $370 million in 2026, up from $100 million this year. This substantial single-year growth of more than 260% is fueled by growing partnerships between mobile network operators (MNOs) and satellite operators, which are rolling out services that let subscribers connect to satellite networks using standard, unmodified smartphones.

Juniper Research anticipates satellite operators will continue relying on partnerships with MNOs, as becoming full MNOs themselves is unlikely within the next five years. As a result, D2C technology should be viewed as complementary to terrestrial networks rather than replacing them.

With Starlink acquiring over $17 billion of US and global spectrum in 2025, some have expected Starlink to pivot to a full MNO and position itself to compete with its current partners. However, Juniper Research does not anticipate this occurring, as satellite operators will need to substantially invest in terrestrial coverage to provide high-quality indoor connectivity.

“A satellite-first MNO will struggle to provide connectivity services to consumers that are comparable to terrestrial MNOs. Satellite signals will be obstructed indoors, leaving subscribers with a disjointed connectivity service; reducing a service’s value,” says Alex Webb, Senior Research Analyst at Juniper Research. “We do not expect satellite operators to compete with MNOs in the consumer sector. We believe their best path to securing a return on investment in their satellite constellations lies with partnerships with incumbent MNOs.”