GSMA Reports on Growing Competition in D2D

GSMA Intelligence found that the direct-to-device (D2D) satellite market is becoming increasingly impacted by a greater need for operator control, shifting geopolitical priorities, and intensifying competition. In its Q2 study, GSMA Intelligence found that the number of operators offering satellite services climbed to 132 last month, up seven from March.

Out of a mobile footprint spanning 6.12 billion connections, 68% are now covered by satellite and non-terrestrial networks (NTNs). The report picked out three key trends driving the rapidly advancing sector. First, analysts highlighted the formation of a satellite joint venture (JV) by the three largest US mobile operators, AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon, serves as evidence that telcos increasingly want direct influence over satellite infrastructure rather than relying exclusively on third-party providers.

The report points out that operators are pursuing a shared neutral-host approach to improve economics and reduce dependency on any single constellation, adding that the model could become a template for other countries. The report also identified sovereignty as an increasingly important driver of satellite tie-ups, which are increasingly shaped by national security and data-residency concerns rather than coverage and capacity goals alone, particularly in Europe. For example, the launch of Vodafone Group and AST SpaceMobile’s business Satellite Connect Europe was cited as evidence of regionally aligned alternatives to US and Chinese technology ecosystems. Operators now average around 1.5 satellite partnerships each as a hedge against consolidation.

Analysts also pointed to SpaceX’s $75 billion IPO and $2.5 trillion valuation as a watershed moment for the satellite sector, though it cautioned that the company’s estimated $740 billion total addressable market (TAM) seems overblown in what it termed the Elon premium. They estimated the Elon Musk-owned float’s realistic opportunity is closer to $15 billion annually. The report noted that Starlink is simultaneously a satellite partner and a potential competitor for operators, adding that capital access, scale and spectrum ownership are becoming prerequisites for long-term relevance. GSMA Intelligence found Starlink added roughly 400 satellites during the quarter, taking its constellation to 10,400, while Amazon added around 150.